Comments on: Portals playing with fees?

By: Robert Simeon

Robert Simeon — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 01:09:23 +0000

Don’t hold back now Simon :)

By: Simon

Simon — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 09:25:19 +0000

The sooner agents abandon realestate.coma.au in favour of Google Base, My Home etc the better. Why the hell do we support a portal that keeps charging us for the privilege?? Support the free alternatives and reduce your overheads!

By: Sal Espro

Sal Espro — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 09:44:35 +0000

Hi Trevor,

I think we have pretty-well enough data now Trevor. e.g. According to ‘Fairfax’ this week, the Sydney & Melb clearances were less than 40% and less than 50% cf (drops of 30+% ) on same mth last year!
Time to face reality. Your ad columns are going to be even more decimated than they were trending before the crash :(

By: Trevor

Trevor — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 05:02:33 +0000

Taking your questions in order Sal:
– That difference in clearance rates in worrying, but I’d still rather have more data (just me being conservative maybe). Figures comparing October YoY, for example, would give a more accurate picture.
– No, I’m not in the game. In my first post a couple of months ago I declared my ‘interest’ – I work for Fairfax Community Newspapers in Sydney
– Finally, I don’t dispute for one moment with your statement about things being cactus in some regions etc.

Statistics are great things, but I prefer to collect as much data as possible before drawing conclusions or making assumptions.

By: Sal Espro

Sal Espro — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 06:36:24 +0000

Do you have a ‘take’ on these figures, Trevor?
e.g. Melbourne’s clearance rate on the week-end ‘fell’ from last year’s 82% to 57% (same week-end both years).

Are you in the ‘game’? Do you disagree that it’s pretty cactus in a lot of regions and heading down in most?

By: Trevor

Trevor — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 02:53:29 +0000

No doubt whatsoever that the recovery, when it begins, is going to be long and slow, but articles like this one, making comments like “Clearance rates in the inner city, inner east and the west fell below 50%. In the inner east, the rate dropped to 37% against 53% for the previous weekend.” need to be taken in context or with access to the numbers behind the percentages quoted. Comparing two consecutive weekends in isolation and then making assumptions about market trends is fraught with danger.

How many properties were up for auction on each weekend, for example? It could be that the actual number of clearances was not so different, but the percentages quoted make the situation look worse than it realy was.

And, of course, the opposite could be true. Either way, I think we need more information before we reach a conclusion.

By: Sal Espro

Sal Espro — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:05:41 +0000

Property market takes another hammering
Here’s something to add to the discussion guys.
“In some suburbs less than half the houses and units listed for auction found a buyer.”
…and, “The jitters easily overshadowed the 1% interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank on Tuesday, and turned many auctions into lonely affairs.”

and,”… not only are they not buying, they are also not even looking, not turning up to open for inspections.”

Clearance rates in the inner city, inner east and the west fell below 50%. In the inner east, the rate dropped to 37% against 53% for the previous weekend.

ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake said he believed prices would only fall significantly if owners began panic selling.”

And the next phase is the real estate sell-off. Hang-on to your hat!

By: Sal Espro

Sal Espro — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 03:39:11 +0000

Let’s see what the property market does this and next week-end, eh? Traditionally, they are near to the epi-centre of Vic property action and Vic is the auction leader.
I’d like to bet that Vic’s current large % drop on this time last year is going to take a massive beating!
Happy bidding SSSR.

By: SSSR

SSSR — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 22:52:29 +0000

PaulID,

There is definitely two schools of thought on which way this will go. Bottom line is that it is a cycle, albeit a sharper correction than previous cycles, and for some areas in the country, where population forecasts are set for high growth, property prices will inevitably follow.

My view is one of an investor who is seeing opportunities present themselves in both shares and property, but I do take on board comments from yourself and Sal regarding what you are seeing.

My primary point was more about my frustration with ‘tabloid media hype’ and my last post was the alternative point from Eureka, of which I find is a more credible source.

By: PaulD

PaulD — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 22:30:07 +0000

SSSR,
You make it sound like the interest rate drop is the silver bullet and everything is going to be alright. The share market drop has pulled a lot of money out of circulation. You say “It’s all money moving”. The fact is, that there is now not as much money to move.
The upper end of the market rarely gets effected by interest rate rises or falls, but it is this sector of the market that is badly effected by the share price drop, because it is the value of shares in a portfolio that is the basis for the equity in property at the top end in many cases.

In the middle of the market, the sale of property depends on actual personal income. In the last 10 years or so, incomes have not kept up with the value of property. There are therefore two possibilities. Firstly, incomes have to increase dramatically – that won’t happen. The second alternative is that property prices will fall to get back in step with incomes. This is a far more likely scenario, because with the credit situation the way it is, the lending institutions are going to be much harder on eligibility to be able to borrow, so there will be less buyers on the ground out there who actually have finance to buy.

It is a really complex situation, not helped by the international financial panic, which all adds to the local perception. We have people making ridiculous offers on properties, and they say that it will be worse next year. They have heard that from somewhere – normally down at the pub, but nevertheless the negative sentiment is definitely out there.